NEW, GROUNDBREAKING POLL FINDS HARRIS SHOULD LEAN INTO IDENTITY, “SMART ON CRIME” AND PROTECTING ABORTION RIGHTS TO SUPERCHARGE WOMEN OF COLOR SUPPORT IN LAST WEEKS OF ELECTION
Only Women of Color-focused Poll Shows Latina, AAPI Women Voters Deepen Support if Vice President Harris Leans Into Race & Gender Identity
Harris Can Bridge Gender Gap With Latina and AAPI Women with Messaging on Abortion, Immigration, and Gun Violence
Oakland, CA – She the People, in partnership with 2040 Strategy Group, announced today the groundbreaking results of the only poll this election cycle focused on women of color. The poll found Harris should actually LEAN into her identity, as it motivates this group of voters, and focus more on a batch of key issues in order to attract Latina and Asian American women support.
While Black women over 40 appear to be reaching historically high levels of support for the Democrat, high numbers of Latina (11%) and Asian American women (23%) remain undecided – groups she needs support from to cross the finish line in November. The Harris campaign has not led with Harris’ identity in the first month of the campaign, but this poll shows her campaign needs to shift gears in the final stretch and introduce herself to voters who remain unfamiliar with her. She can do this by bringing attention to her identities and the key issues that resonate with women of color voters, who will be crucial to her victory. Simply telling respondents she was Black and a woman increased her approval among a (net) 10.5% of respondents.
“Women of color will be the margin of victory this election cycle, as they were in 2020, and this polling proves how true that is. As the first voters cast their ballots this week, the strategy to win over Latina and Asian American women (along with younger Black women) starts with her race and gender identity and continues with showing that her plans will address issues that deeply motivate these critical voters. We need women of color to quickly consolidate support behind V.P. Harris to win the White House,” said Aimee Allison, founder of She The People. “That’s how we will come out of this election victorious – and with the first woman of color as our nation’s president.”
“The campaign still has a real opportunity to use targeted messaging to connect with undecided voters by telling people who Harris is, and by clarifying the differences—not tacking to the center and blurring the lines—between her and Trump that are certain to affect their lives as women, as people of color, and as members of their communities,” said Tom Ogorzalek, Co-Founder and Head of Public Affairs, 2040 Strategy Group
Polling Breakdown: How Can Harris Increase Support Among Women Of Color?
Most women of color lean towards Harris, but undecideds still remain
Topline: Among women of color, Latina (11%) and Asian American (23%) women are most likely to remain undecided, and these two subgroups represent opportunities for Harris’ support to grow.
52% of Hispanic and Latina women favor Harris (11% are undecided; 36% in favor of Trump)
46% of Asian American women favor Harris (23% undecided; 30% in favor of Trump).
Harris’ strongest support lies with Black women (77%).
Women of color want to hear more about Harris on…
Polling reveals that the top three issues that Latina voters want to hear Harris discuss more are: the economy (53%); gun violence (46%); and immigration (44%).
Among Asian American women, the top issues that they would like Harris to discuss more are: immigration (55%), gun violence (52%) and abortion (48%).
Among Harris’ largest support bloc — Black women — their preference is to hear Harris talk more about the economy (64%), race (58%) and gun violence (56%).
Different messaging is effective for different groups
Topline: As mentioned above, simply telling respondents she was Black and a woman increased her approval among a (net) 10.5% of respondents.
Framing Harris as a defender of womens' right to abortion prompted double-digit increases in approval in all racial groups.
"Smart on crime" prosecutor framing tends to increase approval among voters unfamiliar with Harris’ background (+20 in net approval), but if done imprecisely could be polarizing and draw backlash.
Women who were relatively unfamiliar with Harris or undecided what, whether or how they plan to vote in November were particularly responsive to a message about protecting education from book bans: these messages increased approval for Harris by more than 20% in these groups.
Analysis
With only 40 days until election day, Harris can do more to win over women of color—especially among Latina and AAPI women. To increase their support, the campaign should begin to lean into her racial and gender identity while targeting subgroups with specific messaging (i.e. message on immigration to turn out Asian American women.)
Historically, Black women have been key to energizing the Democratic party, and Black women over 40 have now coalesced for Harris at their historically high levels. But, when joined by Latina, AAPI, and younger Black women, Harris will have the numbers and influence to win on November 5.
A full analysis of the poll’s full data can be viewed here.
“Pathbreaker or Partisan: How Do American Women See: Kamala Harris?” is a modeling survey conducted by 2040 Strategy Group on behalf of She The People. This poll surveyed 1,487 women of various racial identities across the country between September 5-10 2024.
Founded by Aimee Allison in 2018, She the People builds power for women of color to lead America to a new political era.
2040 Strategy Group is a mission-driven boutique consulting firm that provides evidence-based insights to political candidates, progressive organizations, and private-sector companies. Our team has decades of practical and academic experience and expertise in voting behavior, public policy, and rigorous research methods. We have a particular strength in providing insights about diverse societies and organizations, especially Black and Latino communities. Our philosophy is rooted in a knowledge that sophisticated short- and long-term strategies will be required to successfully navigate the dramatic social and natural changes that will transform our world in the next two decades, and these strategies can be developed with appropriate scientific and historical perspective. For more information, visit 2040strategygroup.com or email info@2040strategygroup.com.
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